Housing market still dragging economy
Post-recession, the positives are once again outnumbering the negatives in Jeff MacLellan’s annual report on the Columbia area’s economy.
On the plus side in 2010: There’s strong population growth, continued college enrollment increases, an upturn in retail sales, a bit of a building rebound, a drop in unemployment from above to below 6 percent, relatively low cost of living, property values holding steady and extremely low interest rates.
The population spike from the census-estimated 102,324 in 2009 to the census-verified 108,500 in 2010 must have been caused by an underestimate, MacLellan said. A net increase of 6,176 people, or 6 percent, is more than three times the typical annual rate during the past few decades. But there’s no doubt that the 28 percent jump in population since 2000 is good news for the local economy.
On the minus side: The number of jobs dropped for the third straight year, foreclosures hit a record high, the number of houses sold dipped, the value of commercial building dropped to the lowest of the decade and the number of business licenses fell.
Although there was a slight increase in home-building permits, “real estate is still in the dumper,” he said. (Last year at this time, MacLellan predicted that “any recovery in the housing market is likely to be prolonged.”)
MacLellan, the semi-retired former chairman and CEO of Landmark, said there are also a few intangibles that are having both positive and negative impacts on the local business climate.
The plus: Openings of the IBM Service Center and Linen King and the production expansion at 3M “has provided a psychological boost to the business community,” MacLellan said during an interview in his office.
The minus: There’s uncertainty caused by the national deficit problem and a drop in consumer confidence. “People know we can’t keep spending at this pace,” MacLellan said. “The math doesn’t work.” With the uncertainty, business operators and consumers “are less likely to make commitments.”
Then there’s what might be called the potential plus: Regional Economic Development Inc. has an extraordinary large list of pending deals, such as companies interested in locating a data center here, which could create significant numbers of jobs and tax revenue, according to MacLellan, who’s a former REDI chairman and has been on the board for about eight years now.
“REDI is seeing more activity than it ever has,” he said.
MacLellan has been charting the local economic indicators for nearly a quarter century now. Here are highlights of his latest compilation, put in perspective:
On the plus side in 2010: There’s strong population growth, continued college enrollment increases, an upturn in retail sales, a bit of a building rebound, a drop in unemployment from above to below 6 percent, relatively low cost of living, property values holding steady and extremely low interest rates.
The population spike from the census-estimated 102,324 in 2009 to the census-verified 108,500 in 2010 must have been caused by an underestimate, MacLellan said. A net increase of 6,176 people, or 6 percent, is more than three times the typical annual rate during the past few decades. But there’s no doubt that the 28 percent jump in population since 2000 is good news for the local economy.
On the minus side: The number of jobs dropped for the third straight year, foreclosures hit a record high, the number of houses sold dipped, the value of commercial building dropped to the lowest of the decade and the number of business licenses fell.
Although there was a slight increase in home-building permits, “real estate is still in the dumper,” he said. (Last year at this time, MacLellan predicted that “any recovery in the housing market is likely to be prolonged.”)
MacLellan, the semi-retired former chairman and CEO of Landmark, said there are also a few intangibles that are having both positive and negative impacts on the local business climate.
The plus: Openings of the IBM Service Center and Linen King and the production expansion at 3M “has provided a psychological boost to the business community,” MacLellan said during an interview in his office.
The minus: There’s uncertainty caused by the national deficit problem and a drop in consumer confidence. “People know we can’t keep spending at this pace,” MacLellan said. “The math doesn’t work.” With the uncertainty, business operators and consumers “are less likely to make commitments.”
Then there’s what might be called the potential plus: Regional Economic Development Inc. has an extraordinary large list of pending deals, such as companies interested in locating a data center here, which could create significant numbers of jobs and tax revenue, according to MacLellan, who’s a former REDI chairman and has been on the board for about eight years now.
“REDI is seeing more activity than it ever has,” he said.
MacLellan has been charting the local economic indicators for nearly a quarter century now. Here are highlights of his latest compilation, put in perspective: