Commerce investment guru: How did he do?

OK, you say there’s no such thing as a free lunch. But what if I told you there’s a lunch that is not only free, but it could also put cash back in your pocket? Lots of cash.
There is a catch, of course. Scott Colbert, chief economist for The Commerce Trust Co., could be recommending stocks that head south this time.
Every year, Commerce Bank puts on a spread for the business community at the Reynolds Alumni Center that features a presentation by Colbert on economic conditions — past, present and future. At the end, he gives his stock tips.
And for the past few years, the CBT has gone back to see how audience members, and CBT readers, would have fared if they invested in the stocks Colbert recommended.

Last February, Colbert recommended Caterpillar, a construction and mining equipment manufacturing company that was selling at $53 a share at the time. If you bought 10 shares of CAT for $530, you could have nearly doubled your investment because the stock payout this week was $104 a share.
If you followed his advice and invested in Visa, you would have lost money on paper, but not as much as you would have gained with CAT stock. Stock in the payment technology company dipped from about $83 a year ago to $76.
If you acted on his tips in 2009, you also would have made money; GE fell to $5.73 in March ’09, but on the day of Colbert’s appearance last year, it was up to $15.53 and this week was trading greater than $21.
Hewlett Packard? Up from a low of $25 to $53 in February 2010 and $49 now. Visa? $57 to $83 and still ahead of the ’09 price.
Colbert said during the presentation this month that he believes the US economy “is on the verge of a self-sustaining economic expansion.” He predicted a growth of close to 3.5 percent in 2011. (The Fed on Wednesday called for growth of 3.4 percent to 3.9 percent this year, up from 3 percent to 3.6 percent.)
The Federal Reserve is likely to wait until the end of the year to raise interest rates, Colbert added, while cautioning that the enormous federal deficit, the housing market and the unemployment rate are troublesome.
“It’s hard to get too optimistic about this huge headwind we have to address,” he said.
But enough of that general talk; let’s get to Colbert’s stock tips for 2011: (Name, ticker, price on the day of his presentation and dividend yield percentage).
• McDonalds, the restaurant chain (MCD) – $70 – 2.94
• Hess Corp., a global energy company (HES) – $83.5 – 0.52
• United Technologies, building systems and aerospace (UTX) – $85 – 2.16
• SPX Corp., specialized engineered solutions (SPW) – $85 – 1.40