2011: An overcast beginning, possible blue skies ahead

The passage of the year reminds me of taking a turn at the playground slide. Climbing to the top provides the perch to review the year just left behind. The descent through the months to come is bound to seem swift as we watch the events unfold.
From the wide view, twenty-ten was not that bad overall, and there’s much to be thankful for around here because it could have been a lot worse.
Despite a slight uptick in unemployment in December, the Greater Columbia economy performed fairly well last year. The two strongest positive developments were the IBM announcement and the continued robust activity of our holding company — The University of Missouri Inc. The bonus of stronger retail sales at the year’s end surprised budget-conscious city and county officials.
Pulling through the slow part of the slide, the gray days of January, leaves us with several anxieties, however.
First, there’s the big announcement that was expected around Christmas and whether there will be one. Rumors fly through the Columbia area about landing a data center with possible adjuncts. Confidence is expressed sotto voce that we are down to the final cut and, cross your fingers, the good news will be announced in the weeks to come. Rumors abound of properties already under contract for a major development, along with speculation that the whole deal could end up being much larger than originally proposed. Just as this month so far has been largely overcast, 2011 will be marked by cloudy spells, which we would all be well to anticipate.
What happens if the big announcement becomes just another giant rejection slip, with Columbia the runner-up left holding the bag of promises and incentives that state and local governments wouldn’t have been willing to offer as recently as two years ago? Regardless of what happens, we will move on, lick our wounds and profit from an analysis of our efforts. We’ll go on fishing for other prospects, which we understand are still out there.
Then there is the continued onward and upward movement of the University of Missouri holding company. The university is down to drawing somewhere in the teens as a percentage of its total operating budget from state funds, but it has stepped up its student recruitment efforts nationwide, with positive results.
Finding a successor to President Gary Forsee and filling four vacant seats on the Board of Curators are priorities, but it is the entrenched funding issue, overcoming inadequate state support, that must somehow be accommodated. Tuition hikes and other fee increases will be inevitable because the state’s overall financial picture remains so severely constipated.
Meanwhile another division, the University Hospital and Clinics, continues to expand, with more than $200 million already budgeted and under contract for an extensive addition to its facilities.
The entity of greatest concern this year will be the city of Columbia. There’s a trio of challenging situations facing the municipality: replacing key administrators, funding pensions and dealing with the Hinkson Creek issue.
The easy one: Successors will be secured to fill the administrative positions, and life will go on.
More vexing will be how both present and prospective administrators working with the mayor and City Council will deal with the thorny pension funding issue as they try to work something out with police and fire department retirees. It’s a small iceberg for sure, but through compromise, the city and its public safety employees will work this one out.

Then there’s the iceberg of Titanic proportions: the federal government’s proposal to reduce stormwater flow into Hinkson Creek by 40 percent. That little stream we used to call “The Hink,” favored for blanket parties long ago, is pitting the city against the EPA and the Sierra Club. If the cleanup ends up costing a troika of entities — the city, Boone County and MU — a $100 million or more, brace yourself for sewer fees beginning to skyrocket, with the loudest screams coming from the fixed-income crowd.
Thank you, Columbia, for electing Dr. Robert McDavid last April to be your mayor. Now there’s a physician in our house with scientific training and plenty of “show-me” skepticism about the Hinkson Creek issue. We should all feel better as we begin our slide through 2011 and hope Columbia does at least as well this year as it did last year.