Columbia’s economic rankings
How does Columbia stack up against its peers, cities of similar size with research universities such as Lawrence, Kan; Athens, Ga; and West Lafayette, Ind.?
How would Boone County’s economy be affected by focusing its job creation during the next 10 years on specific industries, such as high-tech manufacturing or medical services?
The city posed those questions to the University of Missouri’s Community Policy Analysis Center. The CPAC, with guidance from an advisory panel of local leaders, answered them in a report released earlier this month.
The center compared 25 peer cities (listed in a chart on Page 24) in regard to economic performance indicators and economic changes.
Here’s how Columbia ranked in its “economic conference:”
- 13th in per capita income ($31,325 in 2006)
- 7th in overall job growth (25 percent from 2002-06)
- 1st in retail job growth in retail sector (40 percent 2002-06, $21,568 average wage)
- 6th in employment growth in manufacturing (14 percent, $36,326)
- 7th in growth in retirement-related employment (67 percent, $17,230)
- 17th in growth in high-tech employment (52 percent, $65,505)
- 21st in growth in private medical employment (1 percent, $38,517)
- 21st in growth in insurance employment (about 6 percent, $52,896)
The medical employment category does not include University Hospital and Clinics, one of the city’s largest employers. The report said a slight decline in the number of insurance jobs “does little to diminish the importance of this sector to Columbia’s economy.”
Economic Impact Scenarios
The second half of the report followed up on the City of Columbia Baseline Report, which was issued in October and provided information on historical patterns of employment, labor force, commuting patterns, demographics, retail sales and other economic indicators.
The scenario section analyzed the potential social, economic and demographic impacts for Boone County if there were 1,000 jobs added in the year 2010 in six separate industry clusters.
Here are the key findings:
Non-high tech manufacturing and insurance have the greatest local impact. Of the seven scenarios proposed, the addition of 1,000 new non-high tech manufacturing jobs to the Columbia economy appears to have the greatest impact on most variables in this analysis. The impact of 1,000 new jobs in the insurance sector would have the second highest impact.
Population. Under baseline conditions, Boone County‘s population is projected to grow to approximately 178,988 by 2015. This is an increase of 32,558 people (or 22.2 percent, 2.2 percent per year) between 2005 and 2015. The “shock”of adding 1,000 new non-high tech manufacturing jobs in 2010 would result in the largest population increase of the seven scenarios: an additional 3,511 people for a total 2015 population of 182,499. The smallest increase in population is with the addition of 1,000 retirees.
Employment. For the baseline study, it was assumed that Boone County would gain employment (i.e., full- and part-time jobs) at an annual rate of 1.9 percent per year from 2005 to 2015 (or 20.7 percent overall). That is an increase from 108,750 jobs in 2005 to 131,272 in 2015. Non-high tech manufacturing jobs shows the largest projected growth in employment over the baseline estimates, an additional 2,476 jobs. The “retirees” scenario would result in the smallest projected increase.
Number of unemployed people. The number of unemployed people in the county is expected to increase by 429 people from 2005 to 2015. None of the seven scenarios would affect unemployment significantly.
Demand for housing. The demand for housing is projected to increase by 12,944 housing units between 2005 and 2015 to 70,422. Non-high tech manufacturing would have the largest impact on housing (an additional 1,398 units).
Housing value. Boone County’s median housing value is projected to increase by $2,810 in real 2005 dollars between 2005 and 2015 to $125,569. None of the seven scenarios would be expected to change the value significantly.
Household income. Median household income is projected to increase by $1,810 between 2005 and 2015 to $44,943. None of the scenarios make a substantial impact on median household income beyond the growth projected in the baseline. According to the U.S. Census, Boone County‘s 2004 median household income was $41,417, which was $532 higher than the state’s.
Retail sales. Taxable retail sales are projected to increase to $2.7 billion by 2015, an overall increase of 24 percent in the 10-year period. Taxable retail sales are projected to be $2.74 billion in 2015 under the non-high tech manufacturing scenario.
Public revenues and expenditures. Both public revenues and expenditures are projected to increase between 2005 and 2015, but the projections show that demand for public services (expenditures) is likely to grow at a faster pace than revenues in the baseline and in all scenarios. Under baseline conditions, expenditures are projected to increase 2.3 percent per year over the next 10 years, and revenues are projected to increase 2.1 percent per year. Non high-tech manufacturing and insurance scenarios are projected to result in the highest revenues.
COLUMBIA’S ECONOMIC INDICATORS
LABOR
Columbia Labor Force
May 2009: 91,712
May 2008: 92,066
Change (#): -354
Change (%): -0.4%
Missouri Labor Force
May 2009: 3,016,211
May 2008: 3,022,535
Change (#): -6,324
Change (%): -0.2%
Columbia Unemployment
May 2009: 5,191
May 2008: 3,631
Change (#): 1,560
Change (%): 43.0%
Missouri Unemployment
May 2009: 265,213
May 2008: 166,843
Change (#): 98,370
Change (%): 59.0%
Columbia Unemployment Rate
May 2009: 5.7%
May 2008: 3.9%
Change (#): 1.8%
Missouri Unemployment Rate
May 2009: 8.8%
May 2008: 5.5%
Change (#): 3.3%
CONSTRUCTION AND HOUSING
Building Permits – Residential
June 2009: 92
June 2008: 72
Change (#): 20
Change (%): 27.8%
Value of Building Permits – Residential
June 2009: $7,337,952
June 2008: $3,214,298
Change (#): $4,123,654
Change (%): 128.3%
Building Permits – Detached Single Family Homes
June 2009: 38
June 2008: 15
Change (#): 23
Change (%): 153.3%
Value of Building Permits – Detached Single Family Homes
June 2009: $5,654,000
June 2008: $2,475,000
Change (#): $3,179,000
Change (%): 128.4%
Building Permits – Residential Additions/Alterations
June 2009: 48
June 2008: 55
Change (#): -7
Change (%): -12.7%
Value of Building Permits – Residential Additions/Alterations
June 2009: $633,952
June 2008: $639,298
Change (#): -$5,346
Change (%): -0.8%
Building Permits – Commercial
June 2009: 25
June 2008: 26
Change (#): -1
Change (%): -3.8%
Value of Building Permits – Commercial
June 2009: $1,862,599
June 2008: $9,502,912
Change (#): -$7,640,313
Change (%): -80.4%
Building Permits – Commercial Additions/Alterations
June 2009: 19
June 2008: 22
Change (#): -3
Change (%): -13.6%
Value of Building Permits – Commercial Additions/Alterations
June 2009: $1,080,040
June 2008: $5,116,912
Change (#): -$4,036,872
Change (%): -78.9%
Units Sold in Boone County – Detached Single Family Homes
June 2009: 226
June 2008: 241
Change (#): -15
Change (%): -6.2%
Volume of Sales in Boone County – Detached Single Family Homes
June 2009: $40,389,280
June 2008: $41,570,580
Change (#): -$1,181,300
Change (%): -2.8%
Median Price of Home Sales in Boone County
June 2009: $149,750
June 2008: $154,000
Change (#): -$4,250
Change (%): -2.8%
Units Sold in Boone County – Detached Single Family Homes
First Half 2009: 816
First Half 2008: 981
Change (#): -165
Change (%): -16.8%
Volume of Sales in Boone County – Detached Single Family Homes
First Half 2009: $138,185,059
First Half 2008: $170,240,390
Change (#): -$32,055,331
Change (%): -18.8%
Median Price of Home Sales in Boone County
First Half 2009: $151,900
First Half 2008: $150,000
Change (#): $1,900
Change (%): 1.3%
Foreclosures in Boone County
June 2009: 36
June 2008: 28
Change (#): 8
Change (%): 28.57%
COLUMBIA REGIONAL AIRPORT
Passengers on Arriving Planes
June 2009: 2,229
June 2008: 437
Change (#): 1,792
Change (%): 410.1%
Passengers on Departing Planes
June 2009: 2,166
June 2008: 422
Change (#): 1,744
Change (%): 413.3%
UTILITIES
Water Customers
June 2009: 44,447
June 2008: 43,960
Change (#): 487
Change (%): 1.1%
Electric Customers
June 2009: 44,937
June 2008: 44,591
Change (#): 346
Change (%): 0.8%
Sewer Customers – Residential
June 2009: 40,034
June 2008: 39,530
Change (#): 504
Change (%): 1.3%
Sewer Customers – Commercial
June 2009: 3,573
June 2008: 3,519
Change (#): 54
Change (%): 1.5%